Sunday, March 2, 2014

Sci Fi's Moment: Oscar Predix 2014



Best Picture

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Her
Watch Out For: 12 Years a Slave
Logic: I know 12 Years is seen as the favorite, but let's be real about a few things here: The Globes and the Oscars match up increasingly less, it shared the PGA with Gravity, and Gravity won the DGA outright. You can't predict a split. Splits never happen predictably (except last year, because Affleck wasn't nommed for Director). If you're picking Cuaron for Director, you should be picking Gravity for Picture. It's time for a sci fi film to win this prize.

Best Director

American Hustle, David O. Russell
Gravity, Alfonso Cuaron
Nebraska, Alexander Payne
12 Years a Slave, Steve McQueen
The Wolf of Wall Street, Martin Scorsese

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Watch Out For: Steve McQueen
Logic: DGA is the best predictor of this award. Remarkably so.

Best Actor

Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Will Win: Matthew McConaughey
Should Win: Bruce Dern
Watch Out For: Leonardo DiCaprio
Logic: I do believe DiCaprio's in a stealth position here, but DBC's Best Pic nomination shows it has the support to win both Acting categories it's up in. And McConnaisance.

Best Actress

Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Should Win: Amy Adams
Watch Out For: Amy Adams
Logic: A director's bad press doesn't matter.

Best Supporting Actor

Barkhard Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Will Win: Jared Leto
Should Win: Michael Fassbender
Watch Out For: Michael Fassbender?
Logic: Hasn't lost.

Best Supporting Actress

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska

Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o
Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o
Watch Out For: Jennifer Lawrence
Logic: I don't understand how this is a race between Lawrence (the worst part of her film) and Nyong'o. It should be between Nyong'o and Squibb, but I digress.

Best Animated Feature

The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest and Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises

Will Win: Frozen
Should Win: Didn't see all of them
Watch Out For: The Wind Rises

Best Adapted Screenplay

Before Midnight, Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
Captain Phillips, Billy Ray
Philomena, Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope
12 Years a Slave, John Ridley
The Wolf of Wall Street, Terence Winter

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Watch Out For: The Wolf of Wall Street
Logic: Despite everyone picking 12 Years, this is a legitimately tough category: Philomena won the BAFTA (and is Best Pic nommed here), Captain Phillips won the WGA (but 12 Years wasn't nommed), and Wolf is this weird stealth film that's ridiculously overwritten (and that oft helps in this category). Cast the die as you will.

Best Original Screenplay

American Hustle, Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
Blue Jasmine, Woody Allen
Dallas Buyers Club, Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack
Her, Spike Jonze
Nebraska, Bob Nelson

Will Win: Her
Should Win: Her
Watch Out For: American Hustle
Logic: Her has won virtually every major prize for this category, but Hustle has the broader appeal.

Best Documentary Feature

The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
20 Feet from Stardom

Will Win: The Act of Killing
Should Win: The Act of Killing
Watch Out For: Cutie and the Boxer
Logic: One of the few categories I actually care about.

Best Foreign Language Film

The Broken Circle Breakdown
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Missing Picture
Omar

Will Win: The Great Beauty
Should Win: Haven't seen them all
Watch Out For: Omar

Best Cinematography

The Grandmaster
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners

Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Gravity
Watch Out For: The Grandmaster
Logic: I still believe Lubezki and Deakins are cursed to never win this award, so you can prove half of me wrong tonight, Academy.

Best Costume Design

American Hustle
The Grandmaster
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
12 Years a Slave

Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Should Win: The Great Gatsby
Watch Out For: American Hustle
Logic: Older period flamboyance trumps recent-past flamboyance.

Best Film Editing

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
12 Years a Slave

Will Win: Captain Phillips
Should Win: American Hustle (I'm not kidding)
Watch Out For: Gravity
Logic: Lots of people are saying Gravity, understandably, and I won't be shocked if it wins. But Greengrass's films have won here before, and I feel like the "obviousness" of his editing is more attractive than the minimalist stuff Gravity does. But if you want obviousness, you can't beat the jazzy shtick in American Hustle.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger

Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Should Win: Let's not talk about this
Watch Out For: Whiteface.

Best Original Score

The Book Thief
Gravity
Her
Philomena
Saving Mr. Banks

Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Gravity
Watch Out For: Her

Best Original Song

"Happy," Despicable Me 2
"Let it Go," Frozen
"The Moon Song," Her
"Ordinary Love," Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Will Win: "Let it Go"
Should Win: "The Moon Song"
Watch Out For: "Ordinary Love"
Logic: The last time U2 was up for this award was in 2002 when Eminem won, and Let it Go is similarly as big a song as Lose Yourself (yeah, I made that comparison). As much as I'd love to see Bono et al or Karen O. win this, it's Disney's to lose.

Best Production Design

American Hustle
Gravity
Great Gatsby
Her
12 Years a Slave

Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Should Win: The Great Gatsby
Watch Out For: 12 Years a Slave

Best Sound Editing

All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor

Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Gravity
Watch Out For: Captain Phillips 

Best Sound Mixing

Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor

Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Gravity
Watch Out For: Inside Llewyn Davis
Logic: Not really logic, but in rewatching Gravity this week I was amazed at how good the mixing is; something I didn't take account for in my cinema view. As great as the visuals are, the sound is truly something special.

Best Visual Effects

Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Long Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness

Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Gravity
Watch Out For: Whiteface.